Model performance
Exact bucket hit rate by model and lead time, scored from archived forecast snapshots against official settlement-station observations.
Station-day leads
2
0 archived · 2 live · 2 provisional
Model samples
16
models plus market-implied baseline
Best 6h exact
—
collecting archive
Lowest MAE
0.2°
GFS · 1h
Bucket accuracy by lead time
exact bucket · within one bucket · sample countMODEL
24h
12h
6h
3h
1h
ECMWF
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
0%
±1 0%
n=1
1 provisional
GFS
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
ICON
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
HRRR
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
NBM
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
0%
±1 0%
n=1
1 provisional
GEM
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
UKMO
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
0%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
Market impliedbaseline
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
—
—
—
100%
±1 100%
n=1
1 provisional
Station coverage
STATION
EXACT
±1
MAE
SAMPLES
Los Angeles KLAX
63%
75%
1.3°
8 · 8 prov
Chicago KMDW
13%
100%
2.8°
8 · 8 prov
Detailed rows
MODEL
LEAD
EXACT
±1
MAE
BIAS
N
ECMWF
24h
0%
100%
5.6°
-5.6°
1 · 1p
ECMWF
1h
0%
0%
3.5°
+3.5°
1 · 1p
GFS
24h
0%
100%
3.0°
-3.0°
1 · 1p
GFS
1h
100%
100%
0.2°
-0.2°
1 · 1p
ICON
24h
0%
100%
4.5°
-4.5°
1 · 1p
ICON
1h
100%
100%
0.4°
-0.4°
1 · 1p
HRRR
24h
0%
100%
3.0°
-3.0°
1 · 1p
HRRR
1h
100%
100%
0.2°
-0.2°
1 · 1p
NBM
24h
0%
100%
4.0°
-4.0°
1 · 1p
NBM
1h
0%
0%
3.5°
-3.5°
1 · 1p
GEM
24h
0%
100%
1.6°
-1.6°
1 · 1p
GEM
1h
100%
100%
0.5°
-0.5°
1 · 1p
UKMO
24h
0%
100%
0.7°
+0.7°
1 · 1p
UKMO
1h
0%
100%
1.7°
-1.7°
1 · 1p
Market implied
24h
100%
100%
0.3°
+0.3°
1 · 1p
Market implied
1h
100%
100%
0.3°
-0.3°
1 · 1p
Recent scored snapshots
forecast bucket vs observed bucketDATE
STATION
MODEL
LEAD
FORECAST
OBSERVED
RESULT
09-30
Chicago KMDW
ECMWF
24h
64.2° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
GFS
24h
66.8° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
ICON
24h
65.3° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
HRRR
24h
66.8° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
NBM
24h
65.8° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
GEM
24h
68.2° · <=68°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
UKMO
24h
70.5° · 71-72°
69.8° · 69-70°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-30
Chicago KMDW
Market implied
24h
70.1° · 69-70°
69.8° · 69-70°
EXACT PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
ECMWF
1h
86.4° · 86-87°
82.9° · 82-83°
MISS PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
GFS
1h
82.7° · 82-83°
82.9° · 82-83°
EXACT PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
ICON
1h
82.5° · 82-83°
82.9° · 82-83°
EXACT PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
HRRR
1h
82.7° · 82-83°
82.9° · 82-83°
EXACT PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
NBM
1h
79.4° · <=79°
82.9° · 82-83°
MISS PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
GEM
1h
82.4° · 82-83°
82.9° · 82-83°
EXACT PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
UKMO
1h
81.2° · 80-81°
82.9° · 82-83°
WITHIN 1 PROV
09-29
Los Angeles KLAX
Market implied
1h
82.6° · 82-83°
82.9° · 82-83°
EXACT PROV
Final rows use the station METAR chain for the elapsed climate day. Provisional rows use same-day station observations only after the peak window has closed. Live rows come from the current scanner snapshot because this host has no durable archive.