Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be >87° on Jul 30, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHPHIL-26JUL30 · resolves to KPHL (Philadelphia Intl) climate report · closes 12:59 AM ET · 1d 4h left
OM high
81.1° ±2.9
Market implied
83.6°
Gap
-2.5°
Expected peak
5:23 PM 3:41 PM–7:05 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 84–85° @ 56¢
FAIR
86¢
EV
+54%
KELLY ¼
17.1%
Edge is +30¢ on a 1¢ spread (B+ liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤79°
4¢
29%
+25¢
$0
80–81°
6¢
26%
+20¢
$0
82–83°
37¢
24%
-13¢
$0
84–85° ★
45¢
14%
-31¢
$0
86–87°
9¢
5%
-4¢
$0
≥88°
2¢
1%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 83.6° vs Open-Meteo 81.1° ±2.9. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sonde
66.5
68.0
70.9
72.9
73.9
75.8
76.5
77.7
78.4
80.4
77.9
81.4
80.9
79.4
76.4
72.8
Open-Meteo
66.2
67.7
70.6
72.6
73.6
75.5
76.2
77.4
78.1
80.1
77.6
81.1
80.6
79.1
76.1
72.5
ECMWF
69.4
70.5
71.8
73.2
74.8
76.4
78.2
80.0
81.4
82.2
82.6
82.2
80.6
78.2
76.0
74.5
GFS
66.2
67.7
70.6
72.6
73.6
75.5
76.2
77.4
78.1
80.1
77.6
81.1
80.6
79.1
76.1
72.5
ICON
69.4
69.8
70.5
71.6
73.3
75.7
77.5
78.5
79.9
81.3
81.0
80.6
80.3
79.9
78.3
76.3
KPHL · Philadelphia Intl
NO FEEDThe resolving window hasn't opened yet — this market prices off the forecast.
SONDE-5 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 8:32 PM73.6°F-0.4° vs station
1.3 mi W of KPHL · launched 8:32 PM · hourly cycle · next 9:32 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like77°F
Dew point65°F
Humidity74%
WindW 5 mph
SkyPartly cloudy
Pressure29.71
Today's range68.3–81.7°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp16.4°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km9°C/km
RH aloft76%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes 0.0° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
Market83.6°live · implied from ladder+2.5°
ECMWF82.6°12Z run · 13h old+1.5°
Sonde81.4°11m ago · hourly balloons+0.3°
ICON81.3°18Z run · 7h old+0.2°
GFS81.1°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo81.1°fetched 8:41 PM—
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$5K
Spread (best bucket)1¢
Liquidity gradeB+
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KPHL track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.21°
Market
2.08°
Open-Meteo
1.79°
Last 10 vs market:LWLL—WL—W—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →