Will the **high temp in Philadelphia** be >86° on Jul 29, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHPHIL-26JUL29 · resolves to KPHL (Philadelphia Intl) climate report · closes 12:59 AM ET · 4h 15m left
OM high
82.1° ±1.5
Market implied
85.3°
Gap
-3.2°
Expected peak
3:41 PM 2:27 PM–4:54 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 85–86° @ 1¢
FAIR
95¢
EV
+9400%
KELLY ¼
23.7%
Edge is +94¢ on a — spread (— liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤78°
1¢
1%
0¢
$0
79–80°
1¢
13%
+12¢
$0
81–82°
1¢
46%
+45¢
$0
83–84°
1¢
34%
+33¢
$0
85–86° ★
99¢
5%
-94¢
$0
≥87°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 85.3° vs Open-Meteo 82.1° ±1.5. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONObservedMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Observed
68.7
69.4
71.3
74.0
76.2
77.7
79.4
79.5
81.1
81.8
82.1
80.7
78.1
77.6
74.8
73.6
Sonde
68.5
69.2
71.1
73.8
76.0
77.5
79.2
79.3
80.9
81.6
81.9
80.5
77.9
77.4
74.6
73.4
Open-Meteo
68.7
69.4
71.3
74.0
76.2
77.7
79.4
79.5
81.1
81.8
82.1
80.7
78.1
77.6
74.8
73.6
ECMWF
68.3
69.5
71.2
73.7
76.7
79.1
80.9
81.9
82.6
82.5
81.8
80.8
79.2
77.3
75.5
74.0
GFS
68.7
69.4
71.3
74.0
76.2
77.7
79.4
79.5
81.1
81.8
82.1
80.7
78.1
77.6
74.8
73.6
ICON
69.3
69.4
71.0
73.4
75.3
77.3
79.2
81.5
83.2
84.4
84.4
83.1
81.9
79.4
77.6
75.6
KPHL · Philadelphia Intl
OBS 8:30 PM74.0°F↓ -1.6/h
SURFACE · STATION
Feels like77°F
Dew point66°F
Humidity76%
WindW 6 mph
SkyPartly cloudy
Pressure29.70 ↑
Today's range68.7–82.1°
FeedOpen-Meteo current
SONDE-5 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 8:32 PM73.6°F-0.4° vs station
1.3 mi W of KPHL · launched 8:32 PM · hourly cycle · next 9:32 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like77°F
Dew point65°F
Humidity74%
WindW 5 mph
SkyPartly cloudy
Pressure29.71
Today's range68.3–81.7°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp16.4°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km9°C/km
RH aloft76%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes -0.8° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
Market85.3°live · implied from ladder+3.2°
ICON84.4°18Z run · 7h old+2.3°
ECMWF82.6°12Z run · 13h old+0.5°
GFS82.1°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo82.1°fetched 8:42 PM—
Sonde81.9°11m ago · hourly balloons-0.2°
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$599K
Spread (best bucket)—
Liquidity grade—
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KPHL track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.21°
Market
2.08°
Open-Meteo
1.79°
Last 10 vs market:LWLL—WL—W—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →