Will the **high temp in NYC** be >84° on Jul 30, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHNY-26JUL30 · resolves to KNYC (Central Park) climate report · closes 12:59 AM ET · 1d 4h left
OM high
75.8° ±3.1
Market implied
77.4°
Gap
-1.6°
Expected peak
1:57 PM 12:15 PM–3:39 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy YES · ≤76° @ 33¢
FAIR
59¢
EV
+79%
KELLY ¼
9.7%
Edge is +26¢ on a 3¢ spread (C+ liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤76° ★
33¢
59%
+26¢
$0
77–78°
48¢
22%
-26¢
$0
79–80°
18¢
13%
-5¢
$0
81–82°
3¢
5%
+2¢
$0
83–84°
2¢
1%
-1¢
$0
≥85°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 77.4° vs Open-Meteo 75.8° ±3.1. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sonde
65.4
66.7
68.1
69.2
71.4
71.1
72.7
75.7
76.6
75.5
76.3
76.4
76.3
76.1
74.0
71.9
Open-Meteo
64.6
65.9
67.3
68.4
70.6
70.3
71.9
74.9
75.8
74.7
75.5
75.6
75.5
75.3
73.2
71.1
ECMWF
67.9
68.2
68.9
70.1
71.6
73.1
74.8
76.4
77.5
77.5
77.0
76.2
75.3
74.2
73.1
72.1
GFS
64.6
65.9
67.3
68.4
70.6
70.3
71.9
74.9
75.8
74.7
75.5
75.6
75.5
75.3
73.2
71.1
ICON
69.6
69.8
70.2
70.2
70.4
72.6
75.8
75.6
76.8
78.3
76.4
77.8
77.1
76.2
75.8
74.5
KNYC · Central Park
NO FEEDThe resolving window hasn't opened yet — this market prices off the forecast.
SONDE-7 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 8:33 PM72.5°F+0.5° vs station
1.1 mi SW of KNYC · launched 8:33 PM · hourly cycle · next 9:33 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like76°F
Dew point65°F
Humidity82%
WindWNW 5 mph
SkyPartly cloudy
Pressure29.45
Today's range68.8–80.6°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp16.5°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km8.3°C/km
RH aloft82%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes 0.0° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
ICON78.3°18Z run · 7h old+2.5°
ECMWF77.5°12Z run · 13h old+1.7°
Market77.4°live · implied from ladder+1.6°
Sonde76.6°12m ago · hourly balloons+0.8°
GFS75.8°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo75.8°fetched 8:42 PM—
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$12K
Spread (best bucket)3¢
Liquidity gradeC+
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KNYC track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.11°
Market
1.74°
Open-Meteo
1.96°
Last 10 vs market:——L———WL—W
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →