Will the maximum temperature be >85° on Sep 30, 2026?

DAILY HIGH

Kalshi · KXHIGHLAX-26SEP30 · resolves to KLAX (Los Angeles Intl) climate report · closes 1:00 AM PT · 1d 0h left

NBM high

78.0°

±4.4° pricing uncertainty · 123 historical days

Market implied

81.1°

Gap

-3.1°

Expected peak

—

24h volume

$30K

EDGE FROM NBM

Buy YES · ≤77° @ 4¢

KXHIGHLAX-26SEP30-T78

FAIR

45¢

+500%

KELLY ¼

5.0%

Edge is +40¢ net of 1¢ trading fee (+41¢ gross) on a 1¢ spread (A− liquidity).

⚠ market strongly disagrees — verify obs/forecast inputs before trading

Trade on Kalshi ↗

Model output, not financial advice.

Bucket ladder — price vs. fair from NBM

Market priceFair from NBM

BUCKET

MARKET

FAIR

EDGE

24H VOL

≤77° ★

4¢

45%

+41¢

$4K

78–79°

17¢

18%

+1¢

$6K

80–81°

44¢

15%

-29¢

$6K

82–83°

29¢

11%

-18¢

$7K

84–85°

7¢

-1¢

$5K

≥86°

4¢

0¢

$3K

Market-implied high 81.1° vs Fair from NBM 78.0° ±4.4°. Sonde measured the ±4.4° pricing uncertainty from 123 comparable historical station-days (2025-07-01 through 2026-07-31). Forecasts come from the Open-Meteo archived model runs; outcomes come from RCC ACIS station daily summaries. RMSE includes the model's historical bias and creates the probability and fair value for each bucket. It is not uncertainty published by NBM.

Forecast graph · hour by hour

ECMWFGFSICONHRRRNBMMkt implied

HOUR

12p

Mkt implied

81.1

ECMWF

66.9

67.4

68.9

72.3

76.6

80.6

84.2

87.5

89.2

88.5

86.1

83.5

80.6

77.5

75.0

73.5

GFS

63.0

64.3

67.4

70.4

75.1

78.0

81.2

80.8

78.4

76.1

74.5

73.9

72.0

69.9

69.0

67.2

ICON

65.6

66.0

66.2

69.4

73.3

76.5

79.4

81.2

81.8

81.4

80.3

78.7

76.1

73.5

71.7

70.0

HRRR

63.0

64.3

67.4

70.4

75.1

78.0

81.2

80.8

78.4

76.1

74.5

73.9

72.0

69.9

69.0

67.2

NBM

67.3

67.2

69.3

71.7

73.8

76.0

76.9

77.6

78.0

77.1

76.3

75.1

72.9

71.1

70.2

69.7

KLAX · Los Angeles Intl

OBS 11:45 PM

71.6°F↓ -0.9/h

LAST UPDATE

11:45 PM

17m ago

NEXT EXPECTED

~12:05 AM

~5m cadence

Live station obs are shown for context. This market resolves on 2026-09-30, so the current climate-day high/low is not applied to this ladder yet.

SURFACE · STATION

Feels like72°F

Dew point64°F

Humidity78%

WindSE 3 mph

SkyClear

Pressure29.73

Current day range63.0–82.9°

FeedLive station obs

Applied to ladderNo

WHO'S RIGHT — APP OBS VS STATION VS MARKET

App high so far

82.9°

METAR 6-hr max

82.9°

Market implied

81.1°

No raw METAR — showing the fallback feed, which is not settlement-grade.

Forecast board — predicted bucket

SOURCEHIGHBUCKETRUNVS SEL

ECMWF89.2°≥86°00Z run · 7h old+11.2°

ICON81.8°82–83°00Z run · 7h old+3.8°

GFS81.2°80–81°00Z run · 7h old+3.2°

HRRR81.2°80–81°05Z run · 2h old+3.2°

Market81.1°80–81°live · implied from ladder+3.1°

NBM78.0°78–79°05Z run · 2h old—

Each model has a point daily maximum forecast. The page maps that value into the venue bucket using the same half-degree settlement rounding the market uses. Settlement uses the NWS Daily Climatological Report for KLAX, not any model.

Microstructure

24h volume$30K

Open interest$24K

Spread (best bucket)1¢

Liquidity gradeA−

Best bucket volume$4K

Resting at touch—

Ladder rungs6

Resolution timing

Market closes1:00 AM PT · Thu, Oct 11d 0h

Typical peak heat12:00 PM · half of days 12:00 PM–1:00 PM

High in by · 90% of days2:00 PM

High in by · 99% of days6:00 PM

12p

Typical 90% lock-in in ~14.0h (by 2:00 PM) — the high can still move.

Timing from the last 92 days of station-coordinate weather analysis — real history, not the official climate report. Hourly sampling blurs the exact minute.

Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →