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Will the maximum temperature be >87° on Sep 29, 2026?

DAILY HIGH
Kalshi · KXHIGHLAX-26SEP29 · resolves to KLAX (Los Angeles Intl) climate report · closes 1:00 AM PT · 0h 58m left
NBM high
—
±—° pricing uncertainty
Market implied
82.6°
Gap
—
Expected peak
—
24h volume
$697K
EDGE FROM NBM
No executable line — no bucket has a two-sided touch with real resting interest behind it.
Model output, not financial advice.

Bucket ladder — price vs. fair from NBM

Market priceFair from NBM
BUCKET
MARKET
FAIR
EDGE
24H VOL
≤79°
1¢
0%
0¢
$108K
80–81°
1¢
0%
0¢
$106K
82–83°
100¢
0%
0¢
$116K
84–85°
1¢
0%
0¢
$139K
86–87°
1¢
0%
0¢
$140K
≥88°
1¢
0%
0¢
$88K

Market-implied high 82.6° vs Fair from NBM — ±—°. NBM supplies only the point forecast. Sonde derives the ±—° pricing uncertainty from time to the expected peak and disagreement among available models, then widens it because one public model is only one estimate. This uncertainty creates the probability and fair value for each bucket; it is not published by NBM.

Forecast graph · hour by hour

ECMWFGFSICONHRRRNBMMkt implied
56°64°72°80°88°market-implied 82.6°6a9a12p3p6p9p
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Observed
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Mkt implied
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
82.6
ECMWF
63.3
63.4
65.2
70.1
76.6
81.8
84.4
85.8
86.3
86.4
85.8
84.4
82.0
78.9
76.4
75.0
GFS
59.8
60.0
65.0
69.9
74.0
76.6
76.9
78.7
77.2
80.5
82.7
81.2
76.5
71.5
69.2
69.1
ICON
65.0
64.6
65.2
69.0
73.7
77.0
80.0
81.1
81.8
81.6
82.5
79.8
77.8
75.6
73.2
72.0
HRRR
59.8
60.0
65.0
69.9
74.0
76.6
76.9
78.7
77.2
80.5
82.7
81.2
76.5
71.5
69.2
69.1
NBM
65.7
65.5
67.9
71.1
74.7
77.6
78.0
78.1
78.7
78.7
79.4
79.4
78.1
75.6
73.6
72.2

KLAX · Los Angeles Intl

OBS 11:45 PM
71.6°F↓ -0.9/h
LAST UPDATE
11:45 PM
17m ago
NEXT EXPECTED
~12:05 AM
~5m cadence
SURFACE · STATION
Feels like72°F
Dew point64°F
Humidity78%
WindSE 3 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.73
Market-day range63.0–82.9°
FeedLive station obs
Applied to ladderYes
WHO'S RIGHT — APP OBS VS STATION VS MARKET
App high so far
82.9°
METAR 6-hr max
82.9°
Market implied
82.6°
No raw METAR — showing the fallback feed, which is not settlement-grade.

Forecast board — predicted bucket

SOURCEHIGHBUCKETRUNVS SEL
Market82.6°82–83°live · implied from ladder0.0°

Each model has a point daily maximum forecast. The page maps that value into the venue bucket using the same half-degree settlement rounding the market uses. Settlement uses the NWS Daily Climatological Report for KLAX, not any model.

Microstructure

24h volume$697K
Open interest$415K
Spread (best bucket)—
Liquidity grade—
Best bucket volume—
Resting at touch—
Ladder rungs6

Resolution timing

Market closes1:00 AM PT · Wed, Sep 300h 58m
Typical peak heat12:00 PM · half of days 12:00 PM–1:00 PM
High in by · 90% of days2:00 PM
High in by · 99% of days6:00 PM
6a
12p
6p

Timing from the last 92 days of station-coordinate weather analysis — real history, not the official climate report. Hourly sampling blurs the exact minute.

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