Will the **high temp in LA** be >83° on Jul 30, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHLAX-26JUL30 · resolves to KLAX (Los Angeles Intl) climate report · closes 12:59 AM PT · 1d 7h left
OM high
76.7° ±3.9
Market implied
78.8°
Gap
-2.1°
Expected peak
11:47 AM 10:05 AM–1:29 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 78–79° @ 41¢
FAIR
82¢
EV
+100%
KELLY ¼
17.3%
Edge is +41¢ on a 1¢ spread (B+ liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤75°
1¢
38%
+37¢
$0
76–77°
19¢
20%
+1¢
$0
78–79° ★
60¢
18%
-42¢
$0
80–81°
20¢
13%
-7¢
$0
82–83°
3¢
7%
+4¢
$0
≥84°
3¢
4%
+1¢
$0
Market-implied high 78.8° vs Open-Meteo 76.7° ±3.9. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sonde
69.4
69.1
70.0
73.1
77.8
80.3
80.7
79.7
78.9
76.6
76.2
76.2
75.1
73.0
71.0
70.4
Open-Meteo
65.4
65.1
66.0
69.1
73.8
76.3
76.7
75.7
74.9
72.6
72.2
72.2
71.1
69.0
67.0
66.4
ECMWF
68.1
68.8
70.9
75.1
80.5
85.1
88.4
90.7
91.6
90.4
87.8
84.9
81.7
78.2
75.5
74.3
GFS
65.4
65.1
66.0
69.1
73.8
76.3
76.7
75.7
74.9
72.6
72.2
72.2
71.1
69.0
67.0
66.4
ICON
66.2
66.9
69.6
72.5
75.6
78.7
80.8
81.7
81.7
81.1
79.8
78.2
76.2
74.1
71.7
70.1
KLAX · Los Angeles Intl
NO FEEDThe resolving window hasn't opened yet — this market prices off the forecast.
SONDE-9 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 5:42 PM73.6°F+0.8° vs station
1.6 mi NW of KLAX · launched 5:42 PM · hourly cycle · next 6:42 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like76°F
Dew point67°F
Humidity79%
WindW 12 mph
SkyMainly clear
Pressure29.65
Today's range67.9–79.3°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp16.3°C
Mixed layer0.2 km
Lapse 0–1 km9.5°C/km
RH aloft75% ↓
Boundary layer is mixing 0.2 km deep — the profile contributes 0.0° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
ECMWF91.6°12Z run · 13h old+14.9°
ICON81.7°18Z run · 7h old+5.0°
Sonde80.7°2m ago · hourly balloons+4.0°
Market78.8°live · implied from ladder+2.1°
GFS76.7°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo76.7°fetched 5:42 PM—
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$33K
Spread (best bucket)1¢
Liquidity gradeB+
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KLAX track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.26°
Market
1.45°
Open-Meteo
1.87°
Last 10 vs market:L————LL—W—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →