Will the maximum temperature be >66° on Sep 30, 2026?

DAILY HIGH

Kalshi · KXHIGHDEN-26SEP30 · resolves to KDEN (Denver Intl) climate report · closes 1:00 AM MT · 23h 57m left

NBM high

61.1°

±4.2° pricing uncertainty

Market implied

63.8°

Gap

-2.7°

Expected peak

—

24h volume

$12K

EDGE FROM NBM

Buy YES · ≤58° @ 3¢

KXHIGHDEN-26SEP30-T59

FAIR

27¢

+500%

KELLY ¼

5.9%

Edge is +23¢ net of 1¢ trading fee (+24¢ gross) on a 1¢ spread (A− liquidity).

Trade on Kalshi ↗

Model output, not financial advice.

Bucket ladder — price vs. fair from NBM

Market priceFair from NBM

BUCKET

MARKET

FAIR

EDGE

24H VOL

≤58° ★

3¢

27%

+24¢

$2K

59–60°

8¢

18%

+10¢

$2K

61–62°

23¢

19%

-4¢

$887

63–64°

33¢

16%

-17¢

$2K

65–66°

21¢

11%

-10¢

$2K

≥67°

20¢

10%

-10¢

$2K

Market-implied high 63.8° vs Fair from NBM 61.1° ±4.2°. NBM supplies only the point forecast. Sonde derives the ±4.2° pricing uncertainty from time to the expected peak and disagreement among available models, then widens it because one public model is only one estimate. This uncertainty creates the probability and fair value for each bucket; it is not published by NBM.

Forecast graph · hour by hour

ECMWFGFSICONHRRRNBMMkt implied

HOUR

12p

Observed

—

Mkt implied

63.8

ECMWF

57.2

57.4

58.0

58.5

59.1

59.7

60.0

59.9

59.5

59.0

58.2

57.4

56.9

56.8

56.9

GFS

53.2

52.2

53.1

55.7

59.2

62.2

64.3

65.8

64.8

61.3

63.5

63.2

61.2

58.9

57.3

57.0

ICON

55.8

54.9

54.7

55.5

57.1

58.5

59.7

60.2

61.2

61.9

60.9

59.8

58.8

57.8

56.8

56.4

HRRR

53.2

52.2

53.1

55.7

59.2

62.2

64.3

65.8

64.8

61.3

63.5

63.2

61.2

58.9

57.3

57.0

NBM

56.6

54.8

55.5

57.5

58.2

59.7

60.2

60.4

60.7

60.4

61.1

59.7

57.9

56.6

55.7

55.2

KDEN · Denver Intl

OBS 12:40 AM

53.6°F

LAST UPDATE

12:40 AM

23m ago

NEXT EXPECTED

—

cadence unknown

SURFACE · STATION

Feels like54°F

Dew point48°F

Humidity82%

WindS 6 mph

Sky—

Pressure—

Market-day range—

FeedLive station obs

Applied to ladderYes

WHO'S RIGHT — APP OBS VS STATION VS MARKET

App high so far

—

METAR 6-hr max

—

Market implied

63.8°

No raw METAR — showing the fallback feed, which is not settlement-grade.

Forecast board — predicted bucket

SOURCEHIGHBUCKETRUNVS SEL

GFS65.8°65–66°00Z run · 7h old+4.7°

HRRR65.8°65–66°05Z run · 2h old+4.7°

Market63.8°63–64°live · implied from ladder+2.7°

ICON61.9°61–62°00Z run · 7h old+0.8°

NBM61.1°61–62°05Z run · 2h old—

ECMWF60.0°59–60°00Z run · 7h old-1.1°

Each model has a point daily maximum forecast. The page maps that value into the venue bucket using the same half-degree settlement rounding the market uses. Settlement uses the NWS Daily Climatological Report for KDEN, not any model.

Microstructure

24h volume$12K

Open interest$10K

Spread (best bucket)1¢

Liquidity gradeA−

Best bucket volume$2K

Resting at touch—

Ladder rungs6

Resolution timing

Market closes1:00 AM MT · Thu, Oct 123h 57m

Typical peak heat3:00 PM · half of days 2:00 PM–4:00 PM

High in by · 90% of days4:00 PM

High in by · 99% of days6:00 PM

12p

Typical 90% lock-in in ~15.0h (by 4:00 PM) — the high can still move.

Timing from the last 92 days of station-coordinate weather analysis — real history, not the official climate report. Hourly sampling blurs the exact minute.

Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →