Will the maximum temperature be >76° on Sep 30, 2026?

DAILY HIGH

Kalshi · KXHIGHCHI-26SEP30 · resolves to KMDW (Chicago Midway) climate report · closes 1:00 AM CT · 22h 57m left

NBM high

69.8°

±0.1° pricing uncertainty

Market implied

70.1°

Gap

-0.3°

Expected peak

—

24h volume

$26K

EDGE FROM NBM

Buy NO · 71–72° @ 78¢

KXHIGHCHI-26SEP30-B71.5

FAIR

100¢

+25%

KELLY ¼

5.0%

Edge is +20¢ net of 2¢ trading fee (+22¢ gross) on a 1¢ spread (A− liquidity).

⚠ quote likely stale — confirm the live book on the venue before trading Station high so far is 69.8° vs market-implied 70.1°.

Trade on Kalshi ↗

Model output, not financial advice.

Bucket ladder — price vs. fair from NBM

Market priceFair from NBM

BUCKET

MARKET

FAIR

EDGE

24H VOL

≤68°

1¢

-1¢

$14K

69–70°

78¢

100%

+22¢

$4K

71–72° ★

23¢

-23¢

$3K

73–74°

2¢

-2¢

$2K

75–76°

1¢

-1¢

$1K

≥77°

1¢

-1¢

$2K

Market-implied high 70.1° vs Fair from NBM 69.8° ±0.1°. NBM supplies only the point forecast. Sonde derives the ±0.1° pricing uncertainty from time to the expected peak and disagreement among available models, then widens it because one public model is only one estimate. This uncertainty creates the probability and fair value for each bucket; it is not published by NBM.

Forecast graph · hour by hour

ECMWFGFSICONHRRRNBMObservedMkt implied

HOUR

12p

Observed

—

Mkt implied

70.1

ECMWF

62.0

61.7

62.0

62.7

63.6

64.2

64.1

63.6

63.3

63.2

63.1

63.2

63.5

63.7

GFS

62.3

62.1

61.0

60.6

61.3

62.7

66.0

66.8

67.8

66.6

65.9

65.0

65.7

66.0

ICON

63.1

62.7

62.2

61.8

61.0

61.3

61.4

61.8

62.6

63.1

63.9

65.1

65.3

64.8

64.3

64.5

HRRR

62.3

62.1

61.0

60.6

61.3

62.7

66.0

66.8

67.8

66.6

65.9

65.0

65.7

66.0

NBM

64.5

64.0

63.6

64.0

64.3

64.9

65.4

65.6

65.8

65.6

65.2

65.4

65.2

64.9

65.2

65.4

KMDW · Chicago Midway

OBS 1:45 AM

69.8°F

LAST UPDATE

1:45 AM

18m ago

NEXT EXPECTED

~2:05 AM

~5m cadence

SURFACE · STATION

Feels like70°F

Dew point52°F

Humidity53%

WindSSW 10 mph

Sky—

Pressure29.92

Market-day range69.8–69.8°

FeedLive station obs

Applied to ladderYes

WHO'S RIGHT — APP OBS VS STATION VS MARKET

App high so far

69.8°

METAR 6-hr max

—

Market implied

70.1°

No raw METAR — showing the fallback feed, which is not settlement-grade.

Forecast board — predicted bucket

SOURCEHIGHBUCKETRUNVS SEL

Market70.1°69–70°live · implied from ladder+0.3°

GFS67.8°≤68°00Z run · 7h old-2.0°

HRRR67.8°≤68°05Z run · 2h old-2.0°

NBM65.8°≤68°05Z run · 2h old—

ICON65.3°≤68°00Z run · 7h old-4.5°

ECMWF64.2°≤68°00Z run · 7h old-5.6°

Each model has a point daily maximum forecast. The page maps that value into the venue bucket using the same half-degree settlement rounding the market uses. Settlement uses the NWS Daily Climatological Report for KMDW, not any model.

Microstructure

24h volume$26K

Open interest$17K

Spread (best bucket)1¢

Liquidity gradeA−

Best bucket volume$3K

Resting at touch—

Ladder rungs6

Resolution timing

Market closes1:00 AM CT · Thu, Oct 122h 57m

Typical peak heat3:00 PM · half of days 1:00 PM–4:00 PM

High in by · 90% of days4:00 PM

High in by · 99% of days6:00 PM

12p

Typical 90% lock-in in ~14.0h (by 4:00 PM) — the high can still move.

Timing from the last 92 days of station-coordinate weather analysis — real history, not the official climate report. Hourly sampling blurs the exact minute.

Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →