Will the high temp in Chicago be >92° on Jul 30, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHCHI-26JUL30 · resolves to KMDW (Chicago Midway) climate report · closes 12:59 AM CT · 1d 5h left
OM high
87.9° ±2.9
Market implied
86.2°
Gap
+1.7°
Expected peak
3:18 PM 1:36 PM–5:00 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 85–86° @ 59¢
FAIR
81¢
EV
+37%
KELLY ¼
13.2%
Edge is +22¢ on a 1¢ spread (B+ liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤84°
21¢
12%
-9¢
$0
85–86° ★
42¢
19%
-23¢
$0
87–88°
36¢
27%
-9¢
$0
89–90°
4¢
23%
+19¢
$0
91–92°
3¢
13%
+10¢
$0
≥93°
2¢
6%
+4¢
$0
Market-implied high 86.2° vs Open-Meteo 87.9° ±2.9. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Sonde
61.9
63.9
68.2
72.4
75.5
78.8
82.3
84.4
86.2
87.4
87.1
85.1
83.6
81.0
76.0
72.7
Open-Meteo
62.4
64.4
68.7
72.9
76.0
79.3
82.8
84.9
86.7
87.9
87.6
85.6
84.1
81.5
76.5
73.2
ECMWF
62.9
64.5
68.8
74.4
79.2
82.0
83.8
85.1
86.2
86.9
86.9
86.2
85.0
83.3
81.2
78.6
GFS
62.4
64.4
68.7
72.9
76.0
79.3
82.8
84.9
86.7
87.9
87.6
85.6
84.1
81.5
76.5
73.2
ICON
61.4
62.9
67.8
72.6
76.4
79.6
82.3
84.3
85.5
86.2
86.4
86.0
85.1
83.6
79.4
75.4
KMDW · Chicago Midway
NO FEEDThe resolving window hasn't opened yet — this market prices off the forecast.
SONDE-3 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 7:30 PM74.6°F+0.1° vs station
4.4 mi SW of KMDW · launched 7:30 PM · hourly cycle · next 8:30 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like73°F
Dew point54°F
Humidity48%
WindNNE 5 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.36
Today's range62.1–79.2°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp18.4°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km9.2°C/km
RH aloft49%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes 0.0° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
GFS87.9°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo87.9°fetched 7:42 PM—
Sonde87.4°15m ago · hourly balloons-0.5°
ECMWF86.9°12Z run · 13h old-1.0°
ICON86.4°18Z run · 7h old-1.5°
Market86.2°live · implied from ladder-1.7°
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$12K
Spread (best bucket)1¢
Liquidity gradeB+
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KMDW track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.13°
Market
1.65°
Open-Meteo
1.80°
Last 10 vs market:L—WWW——LW—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →