Will the **high temp in Austin** be <98° on Jul 30, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHAUS-26JUL30 · resolves to KAUS (Austin-Bergstrom) climate report · closes 12:59 AM CT · 3h 47m left
OM high
99.3° ±1.4
Market implied
100.6°
Gap
-1.3°
Expected peak
5:10 PM 4:11 PM–6:09 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 100–101° @ 1¢
FAIR
61¢
EV
+6000%
KELLY ¼
15.3%
Edge is +60¢ on a — spread (— liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤97°
1¢
10%
+9¢
$0
98–99°
1¢
46%
+45¢
$0
100–101° ★
99¢
39%
-60¢
$0
102–103°
1¢
6%
+5¢
$0
104–105°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
≥106°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 100.6° vs Open-Meteo 99.3° ±1.4. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONObservedMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Observed
79.6
78.6
78.5
81.4
84.1
88.0
90.6
93.1
95.0
97.5
98.5
99.3
98.9
97.7
93.8
90.6
Sonde
78.7
77.7
77.6
80.5
83.2
87.1
89.7
92.2
94.1
96.6
97.6
98.4
98.0
96.8
92.9
89.7
Open-Meteo
79.6
78.6
78.5
81.4
84.1
88.0
90.6
93.1
95.0
97.5
98.5
99.3
98.9
97.7
93.8
90.6
ECMWF
77.9
78.2
79.8
82.3
85.1
88.3
91.8
94.7
96.7
98.0
98.8
98.9
98.3
97.1
95.2
92.6
GFS
79.6
78.6
78.5
81.4
84.1
88.0
90.6
93.1
95.0
97.5
98.5
99.3
98.9
97.7
93.8
90.6
ICON
78.6
78.3
79.4
81.9
84.8
87.8
91.1
94.6
96.7
98.4
98.9
98.9
98.2
96.6
94.5
90.9
KAUS · Austin-Bergstrom
OBS 9:00 PM90.6°F↓ -3.6/h
SURFACE · STATION
Feels like93°F
Dew point67°F
Humidity46%
WindSSE 11 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.36 ↑
Today's range78.5–99.3°
FeedOpen-Meteo current
SONDE-2 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 8:21 PM90.7°F+0.1° vs station
2.2 mi E of KAUS · launched 8:21 PM · hourly cycle · next 9:21 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like93°F
Dew point67°F
Humidity45%
WindSSE 14 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.34
Today's range78.6–99.4°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp27.3°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km9°C/km
RH aloft46%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes -0.8° to the forecast. It is 14.2 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
Market100.6°live · implied from ladder+1.3°
GFS99.3°18Z run · 8h old0.0°
Open-Meteo99.3°fetched 9:11 PM—
ECMWF98.9°18Z run · 8h old-0.4°
ICON98.9°18Z run · 8h old-0.4°
Sonde98.4°50m ago · hourly balloons-0.9°
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$430K
Spread (best bucket)—
Liquidity grade—
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KAUS track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
0.96°
Market
1.82°
Open-Meteo
1.81°
Last 10 vs market:——W—WLLWWW
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →