Will the **high temp in Austin** be <96° on Jul 29, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHAUS-26JUL29 · resolves to KAUS (Austin-Bergstrom) climate report · closes 12:59 AM CT · 5h 14m left
OM high
96.8° ±1.4
Market implied
98.6°
Gap
-1.8°
Expected peak
4:45 PM 3:39 PM–5:51 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 98–99° @ 1¢
FAIR
72¢
EV
+7100%
KELLY ¼
17.9%
Edge is +71¢ on a — spread (— liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤95°
1¢
18%
+17¢
$0
96–97°
1¢
51%
+50¢
$0
98–99° ★
99¢
28%
-71¢
$0
100–101°
1¢
3%
+2¢
$0
102–103°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
≥104°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 98.6° vs Open-Meteo 96.8° ±1.4. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONObservedMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Observed
77.9
78.3
78.7
80.9
83.8
86.9
89.3
91.1
93.1
94.6
96.7
96.8
96.5
96.0
93.0
89.9
Sonde
77.2
77.6
78.0
80.2
83.1
86.2
88.6
90.4
92.4
93.9
96.0
96.1
95.8
95.3
92.3
89.2
Open-Meteo
77.9
78.3
78.7
80.9
83.8
86.9
89.3
91.1
93.1
94.6
96.7
96.8
96.5
96.0
93.0
89.9
ECMWF
77.3
78.1
79.9
82.3
85.0
88.0
91.0
93.5
95.1
96.0
96.4
96.4
95.9
94.9
93.1
90.8
GFS
77.9
78.3
78.7
80.9
83.8
86.9
89.3
91.1
93.1
94.6
96.7
96.8
96.5
96.0
93.0
89.9
ICON
77.4
77.4
78.6
81.4
84.2
87.6
90.9
93.5
95.5
97.3
98.0
98.2
97.8
96.5
94.1
90.2
KAUS · Austin-Bergstrom
OBS 7:30 PM94.7°F↓ -0.8/h
SURFACE · STATION
Feels like97°F
Dew point68°F
Humidity42%
WindSSE 11 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.30
Today's range77.9–96.8°
FeedOpen-Meteo current
SONDE-2 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 7:21 PM94.4°F-0.3° vs station
0.8 mi NW of KAUS · launched 7:21 PM · hourly cycle · next 8:21 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like97°F
Dew point67°F
Humidity44%
WindSSE 10 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.29
Today's range77.6–96.5°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp29.5°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km8.6°C/km
RH aloft42%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes -0.9° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
Market98.6°live · implied from ladder+1.8°
ICON98.2°18Z run · 7h old+1.4°
GFS96.8°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo96.8°fetched 7:41 PM—
ECMWF96.4°12Z run · 13h old-0.4°
Sonde96.1°23m ago · hourly balloons-0.7°
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$296K
Spread (best bucket)—
Liquidity grade—
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KAUS track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
0.94°
Market
1.78°
Open-Meteo
1.83°
Last 10 vs market:—W—WLLWWW—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →