Will the high temp in Chicago be >87° on Jul 29, 2026?
DAILY HIGHKalshi · KXHIGHCHI-26JUL29 · resolves to KMDW (Chicago Midway) climate report · closes 12:59 AM CT · 5h 14m left
OM high
79.1° ±1.5
Market implied
80.7°
Gap
-1.6°
Expected peak
3:15 PM 2:05 PM–4:25 PM
24h volume
$0
EDGE FROM OM
Buy NO · 80–81° @ 1¢
FAIR
66¢
EV
+6500%
KELLY ¼
16.4%
Edge is +65¢ on a — spread (— liquidity).
Model output, not financial advice.
SIMULATEDThe SONDE-unit profile below is generated, not measured — this deployment operates no balloon fleet. The observation, the model consensus and the market ladder are live. How the forecast is built →
Bucket ladder — price vs. Open-Meteo fair
Market priceOM probability
BUCKET
MARKET
OM
EDGE
24H VOL
≤79°
1¢
61%
+60¢
$0
80–81° ★
99¢
34%
-65¢
$0
82–83°
1¢
5%
+4¢
$0
84–85°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
86–87°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
≥88°
1¢
0%
-1¢
$0
Market-implied high 80.7° vs Open-Meteo 79.1° ±1.5. Open-Meteo is the selected edge lens. Sonde's proprietary adjustment remains in the Demo tab until real profiles are connected.
Forecast graph · hour by hour
SondeOpen-MeteoECMWFGFSICONObservedMkt implied
HOUR
6a
7
8
9
10
11
12p
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Observed
62.0
64.6
68.5
71.0
72.8
74.2
75.4
77.9
78.5
79.1
78.9
78.6
78.5
76.4
72.1
69.1
Sonde
61.2
63.8
67.7
70.2
72.0
73.4
74.6
77.1
77.7
78.3
78.1
77.8
77.7
75.6
71.3
68.3
Open-Meteo
62.0
64.6
68.5
71.0
72.8
74.2
75.4
77.9
78.5
79.1
78.9
78.6
78.5
76.4
72.1
69.1
ECMWF
64.3
65.2
67.5
70.7
73.4
74.9
76.0
76.7
77.3
77.8
77.7
77.0
75.7
74.3
72.7
71.0
GFS
62.0
64.6
68.5
71.0
72.8
74.2
75.4
77.9
78.5
79.1
78.9
78.6
78.5
76.4
72.1
69.1
ICON
61.2
63.8
68.1
71.7
73.7
75.5
77.1
78.9
79.8
79.9
79.8
78.9
77.6
75.8
72.6
69.2
KMDW · Chicago Midway
OBS 7:30 PM74.5°F↓ -1.6/h
SURFACE · STATION
Feels like73°F
Dew point54°F
Humidity49%
WindNNE 6 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.36
Today's range62.0–79.1°
FeedOpen-Meteo current
SONDE-3 · mobile balloon unit
PROFILE 7:30 PM74.6°F+0.1° vs station
4.4 mi SW of KMDW · launched 7:30 PM · hourly cycle · next 8:30 PM
SURFACE · LAUNCH SITE
Feels like73°F
Dew point54°F
Humidity48%
WindNNE 5 mph
SkyClear
Pressure29.36
Today's range62.1–79.2°
Feed2-s telemetry
ALOFT · PROFILE
925 mb temp18.4°C
Mixed layer0.1 km
Lapse 0–1 km9.2°C/km
RH aloft49%
Boundary layer is mixing 0.1 km deep — the profile contributes -0.7° to the forecast. It is 12.7 h fresher than the last operational radiosonde.
Simulated telemetry — generated from live surface data, not measured.
Forecast board — today's high
Market80.7°live · implied from ladder+1.6°
ICON79.9°18Z run · 7h old+0.8°
GFS79.1°18Z run · 7h old0.0°
Open-Meteo79.1°fetched 7:42 PM—
Sonde78.3°15m ago · hourly balloons-0.8°
ECMWF77.8°12Z run · 13h old-1.3°
Microstructure
24h volume$0
Open interest$330K
Spread (best bucket)—
Liquidity grade—
Best bucket volume$0
Ladder rungs6
KMDW track record · 31d
Full research →Sonde
1.13°
Market
1.65°
Open-Meteo
1.80°
Last 10 vs market:L—WWW——LW—
Simulated forecast history
Snapshot 0m old · this market as JSON →